If you're planning to buy a home in Halifax this fall, there's a date you should have circled: October 28. That's when the Bank of Canada makes its next interest rate decision — and what happens between now and then could change what your mortgage costs you for the next five years.

Here's what buyers need to know, and the one move worth making before the decision lands.

What's at stake on October 28

Most economists expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate at 2.25% on October 28. But a hold is far from guaranteed — there's roughly a one-in-three chance of a hike, and the September jobs report (a loss of 68,300 jobs nationally) has forecasters reading the tea leaves in both directions.

Here's the part most buyers miss: fixed mortgage rates don't wait for the Bank of Canada. Fixed rates follow the bond market, and the five-year Government of Canada bond yield has recently pushed to its highest level in months, around 3.73%. That means fixed rates at many lenders have already started creeping up — before any decision has been made.

In other words, waiting until October 28 to think about your rate could mean the rate you could have had today is already gone.

The pre-approval rate hold: your free insurance policy

This is where a pre-approval earns its keep. When you get pre-approved, most lenders will hold a rate for you for 90 to 120 days. If rates rise while you're shopping, you're protected — you get the lower held rate. If rates fall, you can usually take the lower rate at closing.

A rate hold costs you nothing and commits you to nothing. It's simply insurance against exactly the kind of uncertainty we're in right now.

If you're even thinking about buying this fall or winter, getting a pre-approval in place before October 28 is the single easiest way to protect your future payment.

Fixed vs. variable: how to think about it right now

A fixed rate gives you certainty. Your payment doesn't move for the term, no matter what the Bank of Canada does. For buyers stretching to afford their home — or anyone who sleeps better knowing the payment can't change — fixed is the safer seat, especially with hike risk back on the table.

A variable rate moves with the Bank's policy rate. If the Bank holds or cuts, variable can come out ahead. If the Bank hikes, your payment (or the portion going to principal) adjusts with it. Variable suits buyers with room in their budget to absorb a move and a longer time horizon in the home.

There's no universally right answer — there's only the right answer for your budget, your timeline, and your tolerance for surprises. What there is a wrong move: shopping for homes this fall with no pre-approval and no rate hold while a rate decision looms.

The local picture: buyers finally have choice again

The timing isn't just about rates. According to the Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS®, September saw new listings up 13.4% year over year, with 6.1 months of inventory across the province and an average sale price of $463,312, up 1.2%. Sales were down 6.4% — which means buyers have more selection and more negotiating room than they've had in years.

More choice plus rate uncertainty adds up to one conclusion: the buyers who win this fall are the ones who are ready. When the right home lists, a pre-approved buyer with a rate held can write a clean, confident offer the same day. A buyer who still needs to sort out financing can't.

Your move before October 28

Talk to a mortgage professional now — get pre-approved and get a rate held. It costs nothing and locks in today's pricing for 90–120 days.
Decide your fixed-vs-variable lean before you're under time pressure with a live offer.
Get your documents in order so your pre-approval is a real one, not a verbal estimate.

If you'd like a hand connecting the dots — what homes your budget actually buys in Halifax right now, and which neighbourhoods are offering buyers the most choice — I'm happy to walk through it with you.

Dexter Wilkie, REALTOR®

Royal LePage Atlantic

902-314-9686 | dexter@dexterwilkie.com | dexterwilkie.com

Market statistics: Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS® (NSAR), September 2026.